Edmonton Real Estate Market Forecast for 2024

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Photographer: Kajetan Sumila | Source: Unsplash

As 2023 draws to a close, real estate experts are reviewing the year that was and predicting what the Edmonton real estate market forecast for 2024 has in store.

2023 Edmonton Real Estate Market Highlights

  • Edmonton’s population increased by 3.5% with more than 45,000 people migrating to Alberta from July to the end of September
  • Bank of Canada interest rates rose 75 basis points in 2023 to 5.0%
  • Average selling price for a single-detached home is $479,000*
  • Average selling price for a semi-detached home is $362,000*
  • Average selling price for a townhouse is $271,000*
  • Average selling price for a condo is $172,000*

*Average as of November 2023 for the Greater Edmonton Area which includes Beaumont, Bon Accord, Bruderheim, Calmar, Devon, Edmonton, Fort Saskatchewan, Gibbons, Leduc, Legal, Morinville, New Sarepta, Redwater, Rural Leduc County, Rural Parkland County, Rural Saskatchewan County, Rural Sturgeon County, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, St. Albert, Stony Plain, Thorsby, Wabamun, Warburg.

2023 Edmonton House Prices: Comparison by Area

Source: REALTORS® Association of Edmonton
*3-month average of Median Price

Homes priced at under $500,000 will remain in a seller’s market in 2024

While Edmonton home sales are expected to continue to cool slightly into 2024, the market for single-family homes priced under $500,000 will continue to be in very high demand. The extreme seller’s market in this price point is expected to continue into 2024 as there isn’t enough supply to meet the demand.

The demand for these homes is mainly shared amongst first-time homebuyers as well as out-of-province investors seeking to purchase them as rental properties. The low supply of homes at this price point has a lot to do with high mortgage rates.

Families that would like to upgrade to a larger home are concerned about affordability due to high mortgage rates and are staying in their current homes instead. And for those who are buying a right-size home, many are looking at the strong rental market as an opportunity to rent their existing home rather than selling it.

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Edmonton Real Estate Forecast for 2024

A slight cut in interest rates is expected for 2024

Experts predict that while the Bank of Canada will likely cut interest rates slightly in 2024, the impact won’t be too dramatic even in Edmonton, which is still one of the most affordable markets in Canada.

Borrowing costs will likely continue to keep some buyers on the sidelines in 2024, particularly for more expensive homes in the $600,000+ price range.

Migration to Alberta expected to continue

For as long as the Alberta economy remains strong, international and inter-provincial migration will continue as newcomers flock to the province in search of opportunity and relative affordability.

Population increases will continue to drive demand for housing across the province and particularly in Edmonton, which is much more affordable compared to Calgary.

First-time buyers and investors will continue to drive home sales

Move-up buyers will likely watch for interest rate cuts in 2024 but may still be reluctant to purchase within the $600,000 to $900,000 range. High interest rates will continue to diminish buying power in this market.

However, first-time buyers and investors will continue to snap up affordable condos, semi-detached homes, and single-family homes in the under-$500,000 range. This activity may even shift the Edmonton market from a balanced market to a seller’s market during the peak sales months of 2024.

Average residential prices expected to increase 4% in 2024

While the average Edmonton sale price decreased by 4.3% from 2022 to 2023, experts predict an increase of about 4% in 2024.

Home sales transactions are expected to decrease by about 5% in 2024.

A favourable forecast for Edmonton

Overall, the Edmonton real estate market forecast for 2024 is quite favourable. A strong provincial economy and continued population growth will help promote stability in property values. First-time home buyers will likely drive a seller’s market particularly for affordable single-family homes. And it will be interesting to see if and when the Bank of Canada cuts rates, and by how much.

Are you looking to make a move in 2024? Call/text Wally at 780.238.7384 to discuss your options today.
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